Twelve Major Brands That Will Disappear Soon

By: Douglas A. McIntyre

A number of well-known brands disappeared in the last year in large part due to economic forces. Many of them were in the retail industry, led by Circuit City. ATA and Aloha airlines are gone. Gateway Computers has effectively disappeared after being bought by Acer. It still has a website, but the brand is no longer marketed.

As the recession deepens and stretches out quarter after quarter, more companies will close or will shut divisions. More brands will disappear because their parents firms fold or can no longer afford to support them. Other brands will be obliterated by mergers.

24/7 Wall St. examined 100 large brands that are facing troubled futures. The analysis included records for those brands that are public companies or part of public companies. We considered sales information, information from industry experts, and brand histories. We also looked at the level of competition in each brand’s market and the extent to which that competition is growing. We examined the likelihood that a brand could be sold or spun off in cases where parent companies are in financial trouble.

We have compiled a list of 12 brands that will we believe will not survive until the end of next year. Each brand and the major reasons for its demise are listed along with some of the public information 24/7 Wall St. examined.

1. Avis/Budget (CAR) operates two car rental businesses. The primary competition for the company is Hertz (HTZ). Both firms are facing significant problems paying down their debt. Barclays Capital analyst Brian A. Johnson said the companies are “facing an almost perfect storm, with increasing pressure on both revenues and costs, coupled with very large risks on the liquidity and operational side.” There is real risk that Avis may violate its credit facility covenants. As the travel industry continues to falter, problems at Avis/Budget are going to get worse. The company has said that it plans to operate both brands. Their financial statements indicate that will become increasingly difficult. Avis is the larger operation with 5,100 locations to Budget’s 2,750, according to the company’s 10-K. Avis/Budget lost money each of the last three years and in 2008 lost $1.1 billion on revenue of $6 billion. As sales drop through 2009, Avis/Budget will find it impossible to support the costs of maintaining two brands. The Budget brand will have to be eliminated. CAR trades for $1 down from a 52-week high of $18.

2. Borders (BGP) has struggled for several years as the No.2 operator of book store behind Barnes & Noble. When Border’s released its last set of earnings it said it would cut the number of Waldendbooks stores from about 300 to 50 or 60. With Border’s losses, that won’t be enough. The pressure from online book operations led by Amazon (AMZN) and new e-book readers is overwhelming Borders. In the fourth quarter of last year, sales at Border’s branded stores dropped 15.3%. For the full year 2008, Borders lost $157 million on revenue of $2.8 billion. Borders recently extended its $42.5 million senior secured term loan with Pershing Square Capital Management, moving the due date to April 1, 2010. That may be the day that Borders goes away. Border’s shares trade at $1.47, down from a 52-week high of $8.02.

3. Crocs (CROX) sold the fastest growing footwear in America at one point. In late 2007, the company’s shares traded at more than $72. Now they change hands at well below $2. At the end of March, Crocs got a six-month extension of a critical credit facility. According to Reuters, “Crocs Inc averted a cash crunch by winning an 11th-hour credit facility extension with a California bank, but analysts say the jury is still out on whether the struggling brand can turn around.”  Two weeks before the credit extension, the company’s auditors gave the firm a “going concern” letter, an indication that there would be reasonable chance that Crocs would make it another year. In the fourth quarter of 2008, Crocs lost $43 million after making $55 million in the same period the year before. Revenue fell from $225 million in the last quarter of 2007 to $126 million. Crocs won’t make it through the year.

4. Saturn was created by former GM (GM) CEO Roger Smith to be the company’s platform for manufacturing and marketing innovation. GM, now faced with bankruptcy, will almost certainly close its poorly performing brands. In the first quarter, Saturn sales dropped 59% to 19,843. GM can’t afford to support a brand with poor sales that are falling at such a rapid pace.

5. Esquire Magazine is published by Hearst which is having substantial problems in both its newspaper and magazine divisions. Hearst recently threatened to close The San Francisco Chronicle after losing tens of millions of dollars during the last several years. It kept the paper open after the staff agreed to huge cuts. At about the same time, Hearst closed its paper in Seattle. The collapse in print advertising has pushed revenue at most of Hearst’s large magazines down by double digits after a bad year in 2008. Flagship titles such as Good Housekeeping and Cosmopolitan have been hit especially hard. Hearst is going to have to cut some of its anemic magazine titles. Esquire is among the weakest of the major men’s magazines on the basis of advertising page performance. Through April, ad pages at the magazine dropped 27% to 206. Men’s magazines are one of the most crowded categories in the industry. Esquire is up against GQ, Details, Men’s Journal, Maxim, and a number of men’s fitness and health publications. The men’s magazines which are performing the most poorly will not last long. Big publishers such as Hearst and Conde Nast have already proven that they will cut what they have to in a brutal environment.

6. Gap (GAP) Old Navy and Banana Republic. Gap is a three-brand company living in a two-brand body. In March, same-store sales for the Gap North America flagship brand were off 14% following a 14% drop in the same month in 2008. Sales at Old Navy were flat for the same month but dropped 27% in March 2008.  Sales at Banana Republic were off 16% this year and 8% last year. Gap announced that year-to-date net sales were $2.08 billion for the nine weeks that ended April 4, 2009, a decrease of 9% compared with net sales of $2.28 billion for the nine weeks that ended April 5, 2008. Old Navy has more stores than Banana Republic, 1,067 compared to 573. In the fourth quarter of last year, Gap had less than a 6% operating margin on $4.1 billion in revenue. In other words, if same-store sales at the company continue to drop 15% month after month, Gap is going to run into problems. Old Navy is still the weakest brand of the lot. Gap will have to close it down.

7. Architectural Digest Magazine has lost 47% of its ad pages this year. The magazine is owned by Conde Nast which is controlled by the Newhouse family. Newhouse is having significant financial problems with both its newspaper operations, which used to be very profitable, and its magazine group. Architectural Digest is operating in an environment where high-end home sales and expensive redecorating have been driven out of the market. It is also up against a number of other home and shelter magazines. Publications which are losing nearly half of their ad pages are almost certainly not going to make it for another year no matter what subjects they cover. Conde Nast has already closed or cut back several of its magazines.

8. The Chrysler brand of Chrysler LLC faces a problem similar to the one that GM faces with its weakest brands. As the company filed for bankruptcy with government support, the automaker knows that it cannot support product design, manufacturing, and marketing for all of its brands. An analysis of Chrysler LLC sales by division shows that the Chrysler brand has substantially worse sales than Dodge or Jeep. Through the first quarter, Chrysler sales dropped 61% to 45,706. The only nameplate within the brand that sold more than 20,000 vehicles was the Town & Country which could almost certainly be moved to the Dodge division. Dodge and Jeep both sold substantially more cars than the Chrysler brand even thought their sales were down 40%. When the company is restructuring Chrysler will be gone.

9. Eddie Bauer (EBHI) stock trades at $.38 now. Just last September it changed hands at more than $8. The company has said that it may violate debt covenants this year. According to the AP, the company also has severe competitive problems. “The retailer is facing an uphill battle because its merchandise doesn’t stand out among competitors such as outdoor retailer Recreational Equipment Inc., according to Janet Hoffman, managing partner of the global retail practice of Accenture.” In the fourth quarter of 2008, Bauer lost $128 million on revenue of $369 million. The company’s current S&P rating is about as low as it could be—CCC-. Eddie Bauer could be out of business by mid-year.

10. Palm (PALM) has been at death’s door for some time. It prospects have improved recently and the company has one last chance to become viable when it launches its new “Pre” product. Recent research shows that almost no one who owns an Apple (AAPL) iPhone or RIM (RIMM) Blackberry will switch to the new smartphone, so Palm will have to essentially expand the market to get share for its new device during a recession.  The “Pre” will also be sold exclusively though Sprint (S), the No.3 cellular carrier in the US which has been losing subscribers consistently for more than two years. The launch of the “Pre” is a disaster in the making. Palm’s results for the quarter that ended on February 27th were awful, failing to meet Wall St’s modest expectations. Palm sold only 482,000 handsets for the period, down 42% from the same quarter the year before. Revenue dropped from $312 million to $91 million, and Palm lost $95 million. Palm brought in just over $100 million with the help of its largest shareholder, Elevation Partners, in a recent financing. The bottom line is that Palm has no chance of getting an even modest part of the smartphone market in a severe economic downturn since it competes with two of the premier technology companies in the world—Apple and RIM. Palm won’t be in business in a year.

11. AIG (AIG) may be the only large company in America that both the management and federal government want torn apart. If AIG succeeds in selling most of its divisions it will be able to repay more than $100 billion in government loans and investments. The figure may be closer to $150 billion depending on how the federal money is accounted for. Uncle Sam also owns 80% of AIG’s shares. There are two reasons that the AIG brand, once the premier insurance brand in the world, will disappear. The first is that most of the companies owned by AIG do not bear its name. AIG owns ten general insurance companies with names such as New Hampshire Insurance Company and The Hartford Steam Boiler Inspection and Insurance Company. Several of AIG’s life insurance companies do not have AIG in their titles. AIG’s most valuable financial services company is probably the aircraft leasing operation, International Lease Finance Corporation. AIG is now a “toxic” brand. Its operating groups will do their best to distance themselves from the company even while they are owned by AIG. Once they become independent of part of other companies, these operations will end whatever attachment they have had with AIG even if it means changing their names. AIG may be the one large brand in America which almost everyone would like to see disappear.

12. The travel industry has been so badly damaged by the economy that the airline industry faces substantial overcapacity. There is almost no question that two of the large US flag carriers will have to merge to avoid the bankruptcy of another American airline. United Airlines (UAUA) is among the three weakest carriers in the US. AMR (AMR) and US Air (LCC) complete the list. The stocks of all three companies are down more thank 40% so far this year as concerns mount that passenger traffic declines will accelerate as the recession gets worse. The sales loses are being partially offset by a drop in fuel prices and cuts in routes and airplanes, but the benefit of those reductions has already mostly occurred. When the economy or fuel prices are bad for a prolonged period, airlines turn to the two behaviors which have been their modes operandi in the past—mergers and bankruptcy. If the revenue problems facing the industry get worse, a stronger carrier such as Continental (CAL) is almost certain takeover one of its weakened peers. At United, total consolidated revenue passenger miles (RPMs) decreased in March. Not only are the numbers of passengers dropping, but as BusinessWeek pointed out two weeks ago, airlines are cutting ticket charges sharply because “there are relatively strong indications that bookings for the spring and summer — especially for business-class tickets — may be far softer than carriers had expected.” And, United has indicated that the quarter that just ended will not be as good as Wall St. had hoped. Avondale Partners analyst Bob McAdoo recently wrote “Despite the deepest capacity cuts in the industry, UAL expects declines in [first-quarter unit revenue] that are slightly worse than what other legacies have recently guided to.” In the fourth quarter of last year, United generated negative $989 million in operating cash flow and negative $1.1 billion of free cash flow, defined as operating cash flow less capital expenditures. United cut a deal with its largest credit card processor in terms of the cash balances it needs to maintain. The card company gets a security interest in some United aircraft in exchange. The deal extends until January of next year. United needs a way out of all this trouble. It has already been through a bankruptcy recently. A “merger” is a much more likely alternative now. As TWA learned when it was bought by AMR, the company being bought gets to keep its brand around but fairly quickly a new logo gets painted on the planes.

Source:  http://247wallst.com

Black Radio a thing of the past?

NAB Urges Congress to Oppose Record Label Bailout

WASHINGTON, DC — NAB President and CEO David Rehr urged lawmakers to oppose legislation introduced today that would force America’s hometown radio stations to pay a new “performance fee” to the recording industry for music aired free on the radio. The legislation, introduced in the House, is supported by the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA). A measure opposing today’s Congressional action is expected to be introduced shortly.

“Local radio broadcasters consider this fee a ‘performance tax’ that will not only harm your local radio stations, but will threaten new artists trying to break into the business as well as your constituents who rely on local radio” wrote Rehr. “Although the proponents of H.R. 848 claim this bill is about compensating artists, in actuality at least half of this fee will go directly into the pockets of the big record labels, funneling billions of dollars to companies based overseas”

Three of the four largest record label conglomerates — Universal Music Group, Sony Music Entertainment, and EMI — are internationally-based.

“Although the big record labels have seen their revenues decline over the last decade, local radio broadcasters are not the reason the recording industry is losing money, and it should not be the industry to fix it” wrote Rehr.

To read a version of Rehr’s letter to House lawmakers, click here.

State broadcast associations representing all 50 states, as well as Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia, also issued a resolution today expressing opposition to a performance tax.

On numerous occasions, both record label executives and artists have recognized the promotional value of free radio airplay. Such statements include:

“I love a strong radio hit. All of us. That’s what our job is, to have a radio hit. Without radio, we couldn’t do what we do, but the job is to have a radio hit that sounds unique, and like you”

– Jewel, Grammy-nominated recording artist, ‘Nashville Star,’ July 2008

“Alright, let’s talk about the nuts and bolts. If you win ‘Nashville Star’, you have to get on 200 major market radio stations. You have to”

– John Rich, Big and Rich, ‘Nashville Star,’ July 2008

“I have to thank… every DJ, every radio guy, every promotions guy, everybody who ever put up a poster for me and spread the word”

– Alicia Keys, recording artist and Grammy winner, 2008 Grammy Awards, February 2008

“[R]adio remains the best way to get new music into the listeners’ lives”

–Sony BMG Executive VP Butch Waugh as quoted in Radio & Records, January 11

“[R]adio is the conduit to the people, the voice of the format and the lifestyle’s soundtrack.

-Sony BMG Nashville VP of Marketing Tom Baldrica, as quoted in Radio & Records, January 11

“Obviously, radio is probably the most important thing for a new rock band coming out. If you don’t get yourself on the radio, then you won’t draw bodies at the clubs and you won’t sell records”

– ‘Another Animal’ drummer Shannon Larkin, Drum Magazine, 2008

“Country radio, thank you so much for being our mouthpiece. You know what we do means nothing if it never gets played, and no one gets to hear it”

– ‘Rascal Flatts,’ Vocal Group of the Year, Country Music Awards, 2007

“I can’t even believe that this is real… I want to thank country radio. I’ll never forget the chance you took on me”

– Taylor Swift, Horizon Award (for best new artist), Country Music Awards, 2007

“I have yet to see the big reaction you want to see to a hit until it goes on the radio. I’m a big, big fan of radio”

–Richard Palmese, Executive Vice President of Promotion, RCA, 2007

“Radio has proven itself time and time again to be the biggest vehicle to expose new music”

– Ken Lane, Senior Vice President for Promotion, Island Def Jam Music Group, 2005

“It is clearly the number one way that we’re getting our music exposed. Nothing else affects retail sales the way terrestrial radio does”

–Tom Biery, Senior Vice President for Promotion, Warner Bros. Records, 2005

“That’s the most important thing for a label, getting your records played”

– Eddie Daye, recording artist, 2003

“Radio helped me a lot. That’s the audience. I can’t see them, but I know they’re there. I can’t reach out and touch them with my hand, but I know they’re there”

– B.B. King, recording artist, 2002

“If a song’s not on the radio, it’ll never sell”

– Mark Wright, Senior Vice President, MCA Records, 2001

“Air play is king. They play the record, it sells. If they don’t, it’s dead in the water”

– Jim Mazza, President, Dreamcatcher Entertainment, 1999

“I am so grateful to radio. Their support has truly changed my life, and I hope they know how appreciative I am for that”

– Jo Dee Messina, recording artist, 1999

Source:  Webwire.com

Wal-Mart Spent $8 Billion With Minority Suppliers

It’s your friendly neighborhood “Digital Drummer” again…smile

Ken Smikle, Founder and Publisher of Target Market News, the number one online authority on the Black consumer market reports that Wal-Mart spent a record $8 Billion dollars with minority and women owned suppliers (see http://www.targetmarketnews.com/storyid04280901.htm)

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. expanded its business with minority- and women-owned companies by more than 25 percent in 2008, according to recently verified figures. In the midst of a struggling economy, where businesses across the country have been forced to close or drastically reduce capacity and workforce, Wal-Mart increased its combined direct and second tier spend to more than $8.1 billion with minority- and women-owned businesses.

In 2008, Wal-Mart’s direct spend with minority- and women-owned businesses was more than $6 billion, with second-tier spending totaling more than $2 billion. Second-tier spend is an accounting of suppliers that subcontract with prime suppliers on Wal-Mart business. Wal-Mart’s spend numbers are verified by CVM Solutions, a third-party enterprise supplier management company. Wal-Mart’s direct spend with diverse suppliers was more than $4.8 billion in 2007, totaling more than $6 billion when accounting for second-tier spend. The nearly $2 billion overall increase in the 2008 total is a reflection of the company’s commitment to diversity, its customers and local communities.

“At Wal-Mart, we know we can make a difference in the communities we serve and our commitment extends to minority- and women-owned businesses at the local level,” said Theresa Barrera, vice president of Supplier Diversity at Wal-Mart Stores Inc. “We are proud of the fact that, in these difficult financial times, we are able to deepen our commitment to these important partners — giving them the potential to grow, while enabling Wal-Mart to deliver and sell the goods and services our customers want.”

Wal-Mart began its supplier diversity program in 1994. Through its mission, Wal-Mart’s supplier diversity team partners with businesses of all sizes, industries and areas of the country. (For examples of suppliers in your area, please see Appendix A or visit http://www.walmartstores.com)

As part of its efforts to stay connected to the best and brightest diverse suppliers, Wal-Mart partners with the National Minority Supplier Development Council (NMSDC), the Women’s Business Enterprise National Council (WBENC), the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and several other organizations across the country, to identify potential partners.

“Wal-Mart has been an important partner, supporting our programs and initiatives, as well as continuously creating new ways for outstanding women-owned businesses to sell their products and services through Wal-Mart — sometimes starting in just one store and then growing to become a major vendor throughout the chain,” said Linda J. Denny, president and CEO of the Women’s Business Enterprise National Council (WBENC). “Wal-Mart’s dedication to increased spending with women-led companies translates to growth, financial stability and increased employment in communities across the country.”

In addition to the relationships Wal-Mart maintains with partner organizations, the company is also dedicated to investing in opportunities that assist the establishment and growth of minority- and women-owned businesses. For example:

– Wal-Mart and Sam’s Club have held supplier fairs, and other events, across the country, giving diverse suppliers the opportunity to meet with Walmart and Sam’s Club buyers. — Wal-Mart granted ten scholarships to the Tuck School of Business’ Tuck Executive Program at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire. The Tuck School has two minority business programs that focus on strategic planning, financial control systems and internal growth strategies. Ten more sponsorships are planned for 2009. — Wal-Mart is a member of the Billion Dollar Roundtable, an organization dedicated to the success of minority- and women-owned businesses. The organization is comprised of public companies that spend more than $1 billion each with minority- and women-owned enterprises.

– Wal-Mart invested $25 million in the Pinnacle Minority Supplier Development Fund, a private equity co-investment fund designed to further enhance the growth of Minority- and Women-Owned Businesses Enterprises (MWBE) certified businesses. For more information on Wal-Mart and its supplier diversity efforts, or if you are interesting in becoming a supplier, please visit http://www.walmartstores.com/diversity.

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